The time has come to accept that climate policy has failed, and that the 2015 landmark Paris agreement is dead. We let it die by pretending that we could…Continue readingThe overshoot myth: you can’t keep burning fossil fuels and expect scientists of the future to get us back to 1.5°C
Tag: tipping points
A world where global mean surface temperature has increased 3°C will be characterized by widespread and intense heat stress, extreme weather events, ruptured and unproductive marine and terrestrial ecosystems,…Continue readingEarth at risk: An urgent call to end the age of destruction and forge a just & sustainable future
On average, “the background extinction rate” will bump off about one species, per million species, per year. But what we’re seeing now is a bit more extreme. “If we…Continue readingLiving in a ‘mass extinction’
More than a third of the Amazon rainforest is struggling to recover from drought, according to a new study that warns of a “critical slowing down” of this globally…Continue readingMore than third of Amazon rainforest struggling to recover from drought, study finds
California in North America has ended up being at the frontline of the climate crisis in recent years, lurching between extreme drought and excessive rain. To understand what might…Continue readingWhat’s driving California’s extreme weather?
In past bleaching events on the Great Barrier Reef, the southern region has sometimes been spared worst of the bleaching. Not this time. This year’s intense underwater heat has…Continue readingMore than coral: The unseen casualties of record-breaking heat on the Great Barrier Reef
Global heating has pushed the world’s coral reefs to a fourth planet-wide mass bleaching event that is on track to be the most extensive on record, US government scientists…Continue readingGlobal heating pushes coral reefs towards worst planet-wide mass bleaching on record
Australia’s Great Barrier Reef, which stretches for some 2,300km (1,429 miles) off the country’s northeastern coast, is suffering its worst bleaching event on record. The extent of the bleaching…Continue readingAustralia’s Great Barrier Reef suffers worst bleaching on record
On 18 March, 2022, scientists at the Concordia research station on the east Antarctic plateau documented a remarkable event. They recorded the largest jump in temperature ever measured at…Continue reading‘Simply mind-boggling’: world record temperature jump in Antarctic raises fears of catastrophe
Geologists on an international subcommission recently voted down a proposal to formally recognize that we have entered the Anthropocene, a new geological epoch representing the time when massive, unrelenting…Continue readingViewpoint: What the Anthropocene’s critics overlook, and why it really should be a new geological epoch
There’s enough water frozen in Greenland and Antarctic glaciers that if they melted, global seas would rise by many feet. What will happen to these glaciers over the coming…Continue readingAn 80-mph (129kph) speed record for glacier fracture helps reveal the physics of ice sheet collapse
Ocean currents are driven by winds, tides and water density differences. In the Atlantic Ocean circulation, the relatively warm and salty surface water near the equator flows toward Greenland.…Continue readingOnce melting glaciers shut down the Gulf Stream, we will see extreme climate change within decades
The Amazon rainforest could approach a tipping point, which could lead to a large-scale collapse with serious implications for the global climate system. A new Nature study by an…Continue readingAmazon rainforest at a critical threshold: Loss of forest worsens climate change
The devastating drought in the Amazon River Basin that reported in October has continued into Northern Hemisphere winter, which is the heart of the wet season in the southern…Continue readingWhat’s causing the Amazon’s ongoing record drought?
AMOC, which encompasses part of the Gulf Stream and other powerful currents, is a marine conveyer belt that carries heat, carbon and nutrients from the tropics towards the Arctic…Continue readingAtlantic Ocean circulation nearing ‘devastating’ tipping point
Researchers from the University of Cambridge and the British Antarctic Survey have uncovered the first direct evidence that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet shrunk suddenly and dramatically at the…Continue readingIce cores provide first documentation of rapid Antarctic ice loss in the past
Warm-water coral reefs are facing unprecedented Anthropogenic driven threats to their continued existence as biodiverse, functional ecosystems upon which hundreds of millions of people rely. We draw upon a…Continue readingAssessment of warm-water coral reef tipping point thresholds
How the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) responded to warmer climates in the geologic past has obvious relevance to our understanding of what its future could be as global…Continue readingIce sheet collapse closer than thought
Flowers are “giving up on” pollinators and evolving to be less attractive to them as insect numbers decline. A study has found the flowers of field pansies growing near…Continue readingFlowers ‘giving up’ on scarce insects and evolving to self-pollinate
My colleagues and I overlaid the projections of climate models with data on the geographic distributions of more than 35,000 species on land and in the ocean. We found…Continue readingClimate change research: If warming approaches 2°C, a trickle of extinctions will become a flood
Most people expect that if a system, like someone’s body, an ecosystem, or part of the climate system, becomes stressed, it’ll respond fairly predictably—double the pressure, double the impact,…Continue readingClimate tipping points are nearer than you think. Our new report warns of catastrophic risk.
Many of the gravest threats to humanity are drawing closer, as carbon pollution heats the planet to ever more dangerous levels, scientists have warned. Five important natural thresholds already…Continue readingEarth on verge of five catastrophic climate tipping points, scientists warn
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has assumed Nordhaus is to be trusted. The integrated assessment models used at the IPCC are based on Nordhausian visions of adaptation to…Continue readingWhen Idiot Savants Do Climate Economics
Earth’s vital signs have worsened beyond anything humans have yet seen, to the point that life on the planet is imperiled. William Ripple, a distinguished professor in the Oregon…Continue readingClimate report: ‘Uncharted territory’ imperils life on Earth
Accelerated ice melt in west Antarctica is inevitable for the rest of the century no matter how much carbon emissions are cut, research indicates. The implications for sea level…Continue readingRapid ice melt in west Antarctica now inevitable
A warming Arctic is limiting polar bears’ access to sea ice, which the bears use as a hunting platform. In ice-free summer months the bears must fast. While in…Continue readingStudy connects greenhouse gas emissions to polar bear population declines
Being cautious by nature, scientists warned that in the next few decades the global emperor population will suffer significant losses. This fate appeared a long way in the future,…Continue readingI have studied emperor penguins for 30 years. We may witness their demise in our lifetime
The “crazy” extreme weather rampaging around the globe in 2023 will become the norm within a decade without dramatic climate action, the world’s leading climate scientists have said. The…Continue readingDramatic climate action needed to curtail ‘crazy’ extreme weather
Global warming is driving leafy tropical canopies close to temperatures where they can no longer transform sunlight and CO2 into energy, threatening total collapse. A tiny percentage of upper…Continue readingTropical forests nearing critical temperatures thresholds
You may not have noticed, but earlier this month we passed Earth overshoot day, when humanity’s demands for ecological resources and services exceeded what our planet can regenerate annually.…Continue readingCritics of ‘degrowth’ economics say it’s unworkable—but from an ecologist’s perspective, it’s inevitable
Corals across several countries are bleaching and dying en masse from unprecedented levels of heat stress, prompting fears that an unfolding tragedy in Central America, North America and the…Continue reading‘Huge’ coral bleaching unfolding across the Americas prompts fears of global tragedy
Over the past few weeks, a large-scale rescue operation has been under way off the coast and keys of Florida. It began as water temperatures were rising towards a…Continue readingMissing ice and bleached coral: the sudden warming of the oceans
Sea ice in the Antarctic region fell to a record low this year as a result of rising global temperatures and there is no quick fix to reverse the…Continue readingNo quick fix to reverse ‘astonishing’ Antarctic sea ice loss
Antarctica is currently experiencing dramatic changes at unprecedented rates, marked by repeated extreme events. These include circum-Antarctic summer heatwaves and an autumn heatwave last year, with temperatures soaring up…Continue readingAntarctica’s heatwaves are a warning to humanity – and we have only a narrow window to save the planet
Using advanced statistical tools and ocean temperature data from the last 150 years, the researchers calculated that the ocean current, known as the Thermohaline Circulation or the Atlantic Meridional…Continue readingGloomy climate calculation: Scientists predict a collapse of the Atlantic ocean current to happen mid-century
More than $122 billion of economic activity—$81 billion in international trade—is at risk from the impact of extreme climate events, according to new research from Oxford’s Environmental Change Institute.Continue readingExploring the multi-billion-dollar risk to economic activity from climate extremes affecting ports
A mile-thick ice sheet in Greenland vanished around 416,000 years ago during a period of moderate natural warming, driving global sea rise to levels that would spell catastrophe for…Continue readingGreenland melted recently, says study that raises future sea level threat
Camp Century is 138 miles inland from the coast and only 800 miles from the North Pole; the new Science study shows that the region entirely melted and was…Continue readingGreenland melted some 416,000 years ago, shows high risk of causing sea level rise today
Global warming and drastic deforestation could dry out the Amazon rainforest faster and enforce the risk of keeping it downright fire-trapped. A new study published in Communications Earth &…Continue readingAmazon in the firetrap: Deforestation and warming lock rainforest in dry and damaged grassland state
Soaring greenhouse gases, ubiquitous microplastics, pervasive “forever chemicals”, the global upheaval of animals, even old mobile phones and chicken bones—all have been put forward as evidence that the world…Continue readingSigns of the human era, from nuclear fallout to microplastics
Scientists say human activity has so fundamentally altered the geology, atmosphere and biology of the earth that it has entered a new geologic epoch known as the Anthropocene. On…Continue readingEvidence in Canada lake indicates start of new Anthropocene epoch
The slow-down of the Southern Ocean circulation, a dramatic drop in the extent of sea ice and unprecedented heatwaves are all raising concerns that Antarctica may be approaching tipping…Continue readingAntarctic tipping points: The irreversible changes to come if we fail to keep warming below 2˚C
The Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in summer by the 2030s, even if we do a good job of reducing emissions between now and then. That’s the worrying conclusion…Continue readingArctic Ocean could be ice-free in summer by 2030s, with global, damaging and dangerous consequences
It is now too late to save summer Arctic sea ice. The study also shows that if emissions decline slowly or continue to rise, the first ice-free summer could…Continue readingToo late now to save Arctic summer ice, climate scientists find
“Our data show the impacts of climate change are running ahead of schedule,” said lead author Kathryn Gunn, of the Australian Science agency CSIRO and Britain’s Southampton University. The…Continue readingDangerous slowing of Antarctic ocean circulation sooner than expected
We found melting of Antarctic ice is disrupting the formation of Antarctic bottom water. The meltwater makes Antarctic surface waters fresher, less dense, and therefore less likely to sink.…Continue readingAntarctic alarm bells: Observations reveal deep ocean currents are slowing earlier than predicted
“These ice-ocean interactions make the glaciers more sensitive to ocean warming,” said senior co-author Eric Rignot, UCI professor of Earth system science and NASA JPL research scientist. “These dynamics…Continue readingResearchers discover a cause of rapid ice melting in Greenland
On September 8, 2022, at 6.30pm in Britain, Buckingham Palace announced the death of Queen Elizabeth II. The news broke just 30 minutes before the press embargo lifted on…Continue readingHumanity’s tipping point? How the Queen’s death stole a climate warning’s thunder
Life in the ocean’s “twilight zone” could decline dramatically due to climate change, new research suggests. The twilight zone (200m to 1,000m deep) gets very little light but is…Continue readingTwilight zone at risk from climate change
In 2022 the summer minimum was less than 2 million square km for the first time since satellite records began. This summer, the minimum was even lower—just 1.7 million…Continue readingAntarctica’s heart of ice has skipped a beat: Science briefing calls for action
The groundbreaking modeling study published by Australian and American researchers at the end of March for the first time includes a detailed assessment of the likely impact of melting…Continue readingNew Research Sparks Concerns That Ocean Circulation Will Collapse
The world’s glaciers melted at dramatic speed last year and saving them is effectively a lost cause, the United Nations reported Friday, as climate change indicators once again hit…Continue readingUN reports ‘off the charts’ melting of glaciers
The new study showed a significant increase in emissions from boreal fires over the past two decades. Things were particularly dramatic in 2021, when they comprised a record 23%…Continue readingExtreme wildfires are turning the world’s largest forest ecosystem from carbon sink into net-emitter
Scientists studying the Permian-Triassic mass extinction find ecosystems can suddenly tip over.Continue readingEcosystem collapse ‘inevitable’ unless wildlife losses reversed
Risks are cascading and underestimated, new climate extremes recorded, and the conclusion.Continue readingFaster, higher, hotter: What we learned about the climate system in 2022: Part 3
2°C degrees is not a point of system stability, we are heading towards 3°C or more, and system-level change and tipping points are happening faster than forecast.Continue readingFaster, higher, hotter: What we learned about the climate system in 2022: Part 2
Record emissions, the 1.5°C target, what about overshooting 1.5°C and cooling back to that level by 2100?, and the likelihood of achieving the 2°C target.Continue readingFaster, higher, hotter: What we learned about the climate system in 2022: Part 1
Fires, land conversion, logging and water shortages have weakened resilience of 2.5 million square kilometres of forest, says study.Continue readingHuman activity and drought ‘degrading more than a third of Amazon rainforest’
Using the new measurements of land elevation, Vernimmen and co-author Aljosja Hooijer found coastal areas lie much lower than older radar data had suggested. Analyses of the new lidar-based…Continue readingWorst impacts of sea level rise will hit earlier than expected, says modeling study
“At the moment,” writes Warren Hern, “we are the most misnamed species on the planet: Homo sapiens sapiens—’wise, wise man.’ Not.” Hern, 84, physician and adjunct professor of anthropology…Continue readingHumanity devouring itself and the planet
More and more scientists are now admitting publicly that they are scared by the recent climate extremes, such as the floods in Pakistan and west Africa, the droughts and…Continue readingWhy scientists are using the word scary over the climate crisis
Global warming is responsible for bigger and bigger fires in Siberia, and in the decades ahead they could release huge amounts of carbon now trapped in the soil. Researchers…Continue readingArctic fires could release catastrophic amounts of carbon dioxide
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), a system of ocean currents that carry warm water from the tropics into the North Atlantic, and transport cold water from the northern…Continue readingScientists discover mechanism that can cause collapse of great Atlantic circulation system
An ADB report presented during the bank’s annual board meeting (26-30 September) warns that sea levels in the Asia-Pacific could exceed two meters by 2100. “For short- to medium-term…Continue readingSea-level rise ‘may cross two meters by 2100’
Earth’s wildlife populations have plunged by an average of 69% in just under 50 years, according to a leading scientific assessment, as humans continue to clear forests, consume beyond…Continue readingAlmost 70% of animal populations wiped out since 1970, report reveals
Caption for figure above: Grid-cell specific rankings of 22-yr negative soil moisture anomalies (drought rank) in 2000–2021 compared to the driest 22-yr period in each previous drought event back…Continue readingMegadrought in the American south-west: a climate disaster unseen in 1,200 years
The world’s chances of avoiding the worst ravages of climate breakdown are diminishing rapidly, as we enter “uncharted territory of destruction” through our failure to cut greenhouse gas emissions…Continue readingWorld heading into ‘uncharted territory of destruction’
The latest assessment by risk company Verisk Maplecroft brings those two threats together to calculate that heat stress already poses an “extreme risk” to agriculture in 20 countries, including…Continue readingCountries growing 70% of world’s food face ‘extreme’ heat risk by 2045
Smoke from hundreds of wildfires has darkened skies over the Alaskan interior this summer with the state experiencing its fastest start to the fire season on record amid hot…Continue reading‘Nothing left to burn’: Wildfires blaze through the Arctic
The climate crisis has driven the world to the brink of multiple “disastrous” tipping points, according to a major study. It shows five dangerous tipping points may already have…Continue readingWorld on brink of five ‘disastrous’ climate tipping points
Global heating could become “catastrophic” for humanity if temperature rises are worse than many predict or cause cascades of events we have yet to consider, or indeed both. The…Continue readingClimate change: Potential to end humanity is ‘dangerously underexplored’ say experts
Amazon rainforest becomes a savanna The 2.5 million square mile rainforest is so vast it creates its own rainfall and is home to 10% of the world’s species. But…Continue readingThe world is ‘perilously close’ to irreversible climate change
“There is growing evidence we are getting close to or have already gone beyond tipping points associated with important parts of the Earth system” The 5 hottest years on…Continue readingCritical measures of global heating reaching tipping point, study finds