Emissions Gap Report 2023

Total global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2020 were 54.5GtCO2e, and grew to 57.4 in 2022.

The emissions gap for 2030 is defined as the difference
between the estimated total global GHG emissions resulting from the full implementation of NDCs, and the total global GHG emissions from least-cost scenarios that keep global warming to 2°C, 1.8°C or 1.5°C, with varying levels of likelihood. This is an underestimate as it does not account for excess emissions since 2020 compared with the least-cost pathways.

1.5˚C 50% pathway demands the growing 57.4 to drop to 33 over next 6 years, and requires 38Gt of cumulative CO2 removal (CDR) over next 26 years, with annual CDR in 2050 of 6.8Gt/yr (in comparison, the global ocean uptakes 10.6GtCO2/yr1).

2˚C 66% pathway demands the growing 57.4 to drop to 41 over next 6 years, 39Gt of cumulative CDR to 2070, at which time 7.7Gt of CDR annually.

Footnotes

  1. https://globalcarbonbudget.org/wp-content/uploads/GCB2022_ESSD_Paper.pdf()