“Natural resources … are a gift from God. Every natural resource, whether it’s oil, gas, wind, sun, gold, silver, copper, they are all natural resources. Countries should not be blamed for having them, and should not be blamed for bringing these resources to the market because the market needs them. The people need them.”
These were the words of Ilham Aliyev, president of Azerbaijan, at the opening of the recent United Nations COP29 convention on climate change in Baku.
It may seem inappropriate to sing the praises of fossil fuels at an international gathering that aims to radically reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Indeed, this goal is completely unachievable without drastic cuts to fossil fuel use, but Aliyev’s speech does have a positive, if indirect, impact—it points a spotlight at the elephant in the room, one that has remained virtually invisible throughout the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s (UNFCCC) long history.
COP agreements have never made commitments to limit fossil fuel extraction, even though this would be the most direct—and the only certain—way to rein in the leading cause of climate change.
Fossil fuels are key to climate change, but they are largely absent from COP agreements. The biggest achievement came in 2023, at COP28 in Dubai (United Arab Emirates), when an unspecified proposal was made to “transition away from fossil fuels.” This was not ratified at COP29, mainly due to pressure from Saudi Arabia.
In economic terms, the focus of climate agreements has always been on demand. It is expected that actions by countries (such as promoting renewable energy and public transport) or penalizing the use of fossil fuels (such as putting a price on carbon emissions) will indirectly lead to less fossil fuels being put on the market.
While these measures can be effective, they often end up lacking, or even non-existent, because they depend completely on the policies and reactions of the nations and companies who own, supply, and profit from these resources.
Commitments to supply-side agreements are not on the COP agenda, even though most of the fossil fuel reserves that are considered exploitable—and therefore economically valuable—cannot be burned if we are to even come close to the UNFCCC climate goals. They must be left in the ground.
However, global CO₂ emissions are not falling. On the contrary, the use of coal, petroleum and natural gas have hit record highs in 2024.
Together with social movements, academic and political work is key to defining the areas where preventing the exploitation of fossil fuels is a priority, and to establishing economic compensation. Martí Orta-Martínez, from the University of Barcelona, is doing just this. He is leading a project to geographically define the fossil fuel deposits that should not be burned, which was presented at a seminar as part of COP29.
It may sound utopian to seek supply-side international agreements, but the truth is that it is impossible to reduce global emissions and move towards decarbonization without a rapid decrease in the extraction of fossil fuels. COPs should heed this evidence.
Given the magnitude of the climate challenge, it is not a question of deciding between demand or supply-side policies, but of using both, promoting them in each country, and reaching robust agreements at an international level.