The Anthropocene News

Betting on the best case: higher end warming is underrepresented in research

Probabilities of warming for CO2 concentrations from 400 to 1000 ppm and the relative occurrence of this warming in the IPCC reports for all AR5 working groups and all special reports until 2020 (both in %).

We find that there is a substantial mismatch between likely warming rates and research coverage. 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios are substantially overrepresented. More likely higher end warming scenarios of 3 °C and above, despite potential catastrophic impacts, are severely neglected.